After 2012, After Earth
Mars One & SpaceX a match made in heaven?

By Goro ( &

January 08, 2013
(Original Date: Oct 21, 2012)

PREFACE: The following was originally written & posted on October 21, 2012 (in STRUG). Now that Mars One has officially commenced the process of selecting candidates to be trained as astronauts to go on a one-way trip to Mars, I thought I'd post it here on Etemenanki at this time.

It's been a huge meme (though not as intense in recent months) that 2012 is destined to be a year of big things, big shifts, end of the world, and/or birth of a new age. All kinds of speculations and hype... And yet, when "it" actually happens, few seem to recognize it. It's happening right in front of us, and it doesn't click for most. Such is the power of preconceptions. What we see is limited or enhanced by our expectations. So the less assumptions we make, the more we'll be able to "see". We can take it one step further using "multicontextual coherence" which helps us properly adjust our focus in advance so our "radar" can quickly detect signs of a future manifestation, patterns taking on physical forms. It gives us a firm enough perceptual and logical framework for the process of "reverse-engineering" the future.

For us, this multicontextual "foundation" for the year 2012 and beyond has been the intertwined triple-headed theme of Royal/Martian pregnancy/birth(quake). (The golden apple/Trojan War motif is a sub-theme integrated into the larger pattern.) This has allowed us to readily discern the momentous implications of the advent of commercial spaceflight, quietly erupting like a volcano, in 2012... particularly via SpaceX.

Oct 19 Private Spaceflight Industry at Big Turning Point

The "Transit Rituals" of 2012 [aka "SpaceX Marks the Spot"] have been especially revealing, showing us a dramatic "passing of the torch" from NASA (space shuttles) to private enterprise (SpaceX etc.), signifying a pivotal transition from a stagnant era dominated by government space agencies to a fully revitalized space age of commercial endeavors.

The central role played by SpaceX serves to reiterate the Martian nature of this history-making process. SpaceX, after all, was founded by Elon Musk to send humans to Mars (and go there himself) ultimately. We are talking about the beginning of the first space colony in history. This is a huge deal, one of the biggest moments for mankind, so much so our timeline (time river) itself bifurcates right here in the 21st century. One terrestrial, and another extraterrestrial (Mars and such). Seeds starting to spread like those of a dandelion on a windy day. Once out, no turning back. History went from B.C. to A.D., and now we are going through another "time gate"... to, let's call it, A.E., "After Earth".

"Death", "Conception", "Pregnancy" then "Birth". That's the timeless cycle about to unfold again via Mars, and to be reflected microcosmically in the pregnancy/birth of the "Martian Baby" of Prince William & Kate. Macro and micro, as above, so below, as always. [UPDATE: Please remember that this was written before the Dec 3rd royal pregnancy announcement.]

We are also likely going to see a huge "Birthquake" as another reflection of the cosmic (re-)birth. Or it's certainly possible that the 2011 Japanese mega-quake fulfilled this aspect of the pattern already. Difficult to say. [...]

In case you are not familiar, Mars One was just announced in June 2012, an audacious project to send humans to Mars on a one-way trip and broadcast it all live as a reality-TV show to help fund the whole thing! [video introduction]

Jun 04, 2012 There will be life on Mars: Mission to create first human colony by 2023 - and it will be filmed for reality TV show
Oct 18 Mars One plans human settlement on the Red Planet by 2023

It has all the key ingredients and fits the "2012" pattern beautifully. But unlike SpaceX which has been rapidly accumulating experience and reputation, Mars One seems a little farfetched and too abrupt to be a realistic project. Or that was probably people's initial reaction in general.

Back in June, Mars One was still "in talks" with various interested private companies, including SpaceX. But things have changed. It is moving forward. Recently Mars One announced receiving enough funding to initiate the next phase of the project, which is the astronaut selection process scheduled for 2013! But what I personally see as a game changer is their decision to partner with SpaceX. Mars One now plans to use SpaceX's Falcon Heavy rocket and a variant of the Dragon spacecraft (both still in development) to send supplies, rovers and humans to the Red Planet... starting in 2016! Yes, now it actually sounds [more] realistic. And it's ridiculously exciting!

UPDATE: In December 2012, Mars One had a meeting with SpaceX "where they discussed the timeline and financial conditions to purchase a 2016 launch and landing on Mars."

[End update]

A media event (reality show) of the millennium featuring Mars One and SpaceX... [...] This could be how the world ends and how the new world begins! And it [may be] starting right now. The reality TV show is starting as early as next year, 2013. So this is getting very real very fast. If it manages to keep moving forward... well, mankind will have never seen anything like this.

Here is the Mars One road map:

  • 2012 (May): SpaceX Dragon successfully berthed at ISS, first for private company
  • 2012 (June): Mars One announced
  • 2012 (Aug 29): Mars One announces receipt of initial funding through sponsorship revenue
  • 2012 (Oct): SpaceX Dragon delivers supplies to ISS in first-ever NASA-contracted mission
  • 2013: The first 40 astronauts will be selected; a replica of the settlement will be built on earth for training purposes; all this will be televised to fund the project
  • 2014: The first communication satellite will be produced
  • 2016: A supply mission will be launched with 2500 kilograms of food in a modified SpaceX Dragon
  • 2018: An exploration vehicle will launch to pick the location of the settlement
  • 2021: Six additional Dragon capsules and another rover will launch with two living units, two life support units and two supply units.
  • 2022: A SpaceX Falcon Heavy will launch with the first group of four colonists
  • 2023: The first colonists will arrive on Mars in a modified Dragon capsule
  • 2025: A second group of four colonists will arrive
  • 2033: The colony will reach 20 settlers

: As of early 2015, Mars One is running 2 years behind original schedule. Here is the updated road map:
  • 2011: Mars One founded
  • 2012 (June): Mars One announced
  • 2012 (Aug 29): Mars One announces receipt of initial funding through sponsorship revenue
  • 2013: Start of crew selection
  • 2015: Start of crew training
  • 2018: Demonstration mission and communication satellite launched to Mars
  • 2020: Rover mission and another satellite launched; rover will prepare the landing/settlement location
  • 2022: 2nd rover, 2 living units, 2 life support systems, and a supply unit launched to Mars
  • 2023: Cargo units landing on Mars; rover sets up outpost
  • 2024: First human settlers launched to Mars; cargo for 2nd crew launched to Mars
  • 2025: First human settlers landing on Mars
  • 2026: 2nd crew departing for Mars; cargo for 3rd crew launched
  • 2027: 2nd crew landing on Mars
[End of Update]

The first "moment of truth" will come in 2016 when Mars One/SpaceX launches their first supply (unmanned) mission to Mars. (Notice how this might coincide with Marco Rubio/"Mars Red" becoming president [or vice president] of the United States.) If successful, we are going to see the beginning of a real "Mars fever" on this planet - an excitement that will eventually match and surpass that of the Moon race half a century ago.

Think about it. Going to Mars is exciting enough, streaming it all live is exciting enough, but this will all culminate in a one-way trip to Mars for the "lucky" four astronauts. Can you imagine the the intensity of all the drama that will surely surround the insanely historic launch? It will be surreal. And that's only about a decade away (2023). That's like from 9/11 to now. That's not a very long time to wait. I'm sure some of you have been following my work longer than that!

This is [the stuff that would] change the world. Indeed, what we are seeing right now is the end of the world as we know it. Once we start going off-planet (beyond low-earth orbit), all bets are off, the floodgate is wide open, and everything changes very rapidly. Welcome to the Brave New World.

Given the aforementioned timeline, we can multicontextually infer that the "Martian baby" - via Prince William & Kate - will be born in 2013 as well, coinciding with the first phase of Mars One. [UPDATE: It is now confirmed that Kate's baby will be born in 2013.] This may also potentially produce a severe "Birthquake" such as the "Big One" on the west coast of the United States.

I still can't get over how brilliant this partnership forged between Mars One and SpaceX is. It's perfect. Elon Musk/SpaceX was prepared to go it alone, but their logistics calculation had to take into account a return trip. Escaping a planetary gravity well is no easy task requiring a lot of energy. Cutting that energy (as well as supply) requirement in roughly half would be a game-changer. And that's exactly what Mars One brought to the table with their one-way trip (colony) model. Add to it the exciting use of a reality-TV show for funding purposes, suddenly it seems quite feasible to send humans to Mars in just over a decade! SpaceX wanted to reduce energy/supply requirements and overall cost, Mars One needed technical expertise, experience, cheap rockets and spacecraft to carry their crew. They complemented each other perfectly. While SpaceX could have gone alone (and they still might), it would have taken a few years longer to clear the hurdle made higher by the extra (return trip) stuff. Now, working with Mars One, we are [plausibly] looking at 2023 for the next "giant leap for mankind."

Can you feel the "Destiny" in the air?

If there is still a big missing piece of the puzzle, that might just be... mining. If we discover valuable minerals on Mars, it will give us a solid long-term business rationale for having a continuous human presence on that planet, ensuring that the colonization process will move forward unlike what happened with the Moon. [...]

Perhaps it's already starting... via Curiosity, which specializes in analyzing the Martian soil. [...] Curiosity may not find life, but if it manages to detect valuable minerals... that'll be a game changer too. There's immediately going to be a mainstream commercial interest in going to Mars.

Or perhaps mining Mars will begin after the Mars One rovers/colonists discover something valuable there.

There is also "Planetary Resources", a private company announced again just this year [2012], planning to mine asteroids which we can imagine may come into play as well.

Apr 23, 2012 Tech Billionaires Plan Audacious Mission to Mine Asteroids
Apr 24 Plans for asteroid mining emerge
Apr 24 Why Asteroid Mining Makes Huge Dollars and Sense
Apr 24 Mining asteroids could boost space exploration

Last but not least... [...]

Oct 19, 2012 Martian genome: Is there DNA on the Red Planet?

    Face_on_Mars-decoding.gif (228446 bytes)

It's all coming to a "head"...

In the future people will look back and realize that it all started, like a floodgate opening, in the year 2012.

But for now, only few are seeing and comprehending what's happening.

*    *    *

New developments since original posting (Oct 21, 2012)

Nov 26, 2012 Musk Wants to Build 80,000-Person Mars Colony
Dec 03 Curiosity Rover Finds Organic Signal on Mars
Dec 07 Private company "Golden Spike" plans manned
moon missions by 2020

Dec 27 First 'Alien Earth' Will Be Found in 2013, Experts Say
Dec 27 The Year's Most Audacious Private Space Exploration Plans
Jan 01, 2013 Private Space Travel to Make Giant Leaps in 2013
Jan 02 New Images Show a "Living" Mars
Jan 02 Mission to Mars Could Mess With Your Brain
Jan 02 NASA mulls plan to drag asteroid into moon's orbit
Jan 03 Golden Spike Hires Lunar Lander Designer
Jan 03 In Ancient Meteorite, Hint There Was Life on Mars
Jan 08 Wanted: Colonists to Explore Mars (Mars One)

Feb 21 Space Tourist to Announce Manned Mars Voyage for 2018
Feb 27 Wanted: Married Couple for Private Mars Voyage in 2018
Feb 27 Tito's 2018 Human Mars Flyby Mission Explained (Infographic)
Feb 27 Plan to Send Humans to Mars in 2018 Might Not Be So Crazy

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